Solana ETF Approval Odds Dim as Regulatory Delays Continue

As the cryptocurrency market eagerly awaits the approval of a Solana ETF, new developments suggest that the wait may be longer than anticipated. Here’s a closer look at the current state of affairs and what it means for the future of Solana and its investors.

Grayscale’s Solana ETF Filing Fails to Boost Approval Odds

Despite Grayscale filing for a Solana ETF, prediction markets remain unconvinced about its chances of approval. On Polymarket, odds for a Solana ETF approval in Q2 2025 are at just 23%, with broader expectations for any 2025 approval at 83%, down from 92% earlier this year. The decline reflects regulatory delays, with the SEC extending review timelines for several ETF applications tied to Solana and other altcoins. This suggests the agency may be holding off on decisions until a permanent chair takes over.

Grayscale Files for Solana ETF With SEC

Grayscale Investments has filed an updated S-1 registration form with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeking to convert its existing Solana Trust into an ETF listed on NYSE Arca. The move aims to offer a regulated, liquid entry point for crypto exposure amid evolving market trends. If approved, the trust will be renamed the Grayscale Solana Trust ETF. Investors will gain regulated access to Solana without directly handling the asset, mirroring similar steps taken with other crypto trusts.

Solana Sees Major Outflows As Price Falls 19% In Ten Days

The price of Solana has been struggling, falling 19% in ten days. Many investors are losing patience and selling their holdings, contributing to mounting frustration. The Realized Profit/Loss (RPL) indicator shows Solana has been underperforming for most of February and March, with brief moments of profit for short-term holders. The selling pressure is keeping the market from recovering, weakening investor sentiment.

Solana Rebounds 6% as PayPal Adopts Chainlink and SOL for Payments

Solana found a $545 million lifeline as PayPal officially adopted Chainlink and SOL for payments. The SOL price rebounded 6% on Friday, outperforming major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP. The recovery defied bearish pressure from upcoming token unlocks and FTX’s imminent payout. PayPal’s announcement helped establish short-term dominance for Solana bulls, with $545 million in long leverage positions against $328 million in shorts. Multiple catalysts, including PayPal integration, strong U.S. jobs data, and China retaliatory tariffs on US imports, drove the Solana price surge. Solana formed a local bottom at $120.